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While a blowout well continues spewing crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico, BP’s global rivals are circling like vultures, ready to devour any assets that the disaster-strained company might reluctantly shake off.

Among them are China’s cash-rich, Big Three oil companies. They are particularly interested in BP’s upstream assets in Central Asia and Africa, and are certain to join a list of potential buyers if BP is forced to sell the family silver.

BP’s costs connected to the runaway oil spill ?America’s worst environmental disaster ?could include compensation for at least the estimated 30,000 plaintiffs currently suing the company for damage inflicted on fisheries, tourism and marine transport along the Gulf Coast. More individuals and companies were expected to sue in the future.

Between the explosion and sinking of the US$ 365 million Deepwater Horizon rig on April 20 and a report June 8, the company had spent an estimated US$ 1.25 billion on damage claims and to drill relief wells that may eventually stop the leak.

Officials say the company’s expenses will continue soaring for some time. A Credit Suisse report estimated BP would ultimately incur US$ 37 billion in spill-related costs, including US$ 23 billion for pollution clean-ups and US$ 14 billion for plaintiff compensation and environmental rehabilitation once the well is capped.

The ratings services Fitch and Moody’s lowered their credit ratings for BP, predicting the disaster would significantly impact cash flow and limit the company’s capacities in key business areas for mid- to long-term periods.

Domestic and international industry sources interviewed by Caixin said BP has enough money to cover these huge costs. But while the company may survive financially, they said, its fate may be sealed by the U.S. government and an angry public.

Even Credit Suisse’s estimate of the disaster costs ?among the most pessimistic of all analyses so far ?may not kill BP: Its worst-case scenario payout would amount to only about two years of company profits.

The company reported after-tax profits of US$ 21.2 billion in 2008 on sales of US$ 352.4 billion, and US$ 20.6 billion in 2007 on sales of US$ 323.5 billion.

What’s more worrisome than the monetary cost is the political pressure aimed at BP by the administration of President Barack Obama and Congress.

The British newspaper The Sunday Times said the U.S. House and Senate are considering punishing BP with legislative measures that would strip the company of its rights to upstream exploration and U.S. government contracts.

In a blog post, business editor Robert Preston of the British broadcaster BBC said BP’s management is aware that the company’s reputation is foundering in America. He said the board is considering an orderly sale of U.S. assets along with a gradual withdrawal from American soil and waters.

After the Fallout

BP shares lost half their value between April and early June, erasing US$ 82 billion from investor portfolios. The company’s share price on the New York Stock Exchange plummeted nearly 16 percent June 9 to a 14-year low.

And as the fallout continued, a list of critical questions grew longer. Might BP be acquired? Or face bankruptcy? Will the company sell off assets? And might it spin off American operations and completely exit the United States?

Norges Bank analyst Gudmund Halle Isfeldt said the sharp decline in market value may generate takeover interest among potential buyers; Isfeldt says the probability of a BP takeover had risen to between 10 and 20 percent.

Even more eye-catching was a June 10 report by Standard Chartered Bank on the possibility and feasibility of a China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) acquisition of BP, which would give BP shareholders an exit opportunity.

The report said BP and CNPC have no overlapping businesses, and that such an acquisition would allow CNPC to buy 18 billion barrels of oil reserves at US$ 7 per barrel ?a bargain in the current business environment marked by rising prices.

In one swoop, CNPC would be transformed from a low-growth company to a highly profitable giant in the global oil industry.

But the bank report also pointed to various risks, including a BP buyer’s potential responsibility for Gulf leak damages and possible rejection of any proposed deal by government regulators.

It may be more likely that BP would sell some of its most valuable assets to cover disaster compensation expenses. And that’s why the vultures are hovering.

In addition to U.S. oil companies, a source said the European concern Shell started a forecast analysis in May on the possibility of BP spinoffs. British Gas, Saudi Aramco and others are paying close attention as well.

And in addition to CNPC, the Chinese giants Sinopec and China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) are closely watching developments in the Gulf.

CNOOC has a special reason for interest in BP’s Gulf assets. As early as 1997, the Chinese company began low-key cooperation with the U.S. oil company Kerr-McGee to explore in the Gulf. And in 2005, CNOOC tried but failed to buy America’s Unocal.

Last November, CNOOC found a new way into the Gulf by acquiring, through a subsidiary, partial interest in four exploration blocks in U.S. waters owned by Norway’s Statoil.

But CNOOC is not as advanced in deep-sea technologies as other companies. And a proposed acquisition could be blocked by the U.S. Foreign Investment Review Board.

Moreover, sources close to CNPC and Sinopec officials say these companies are more interested in BP assets in parts of the world where they already do business such as Central Asia, Africa and Latin America.

By staff reporter Chen Zhu